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peristaltorI recently posted about what I see as evidence of the aging Baby Boomers and their vast demographic as this age group wrinkles through time. (I wrote that in a bit of a doom-and-gloom mood, it seems from the tone. Hmmm. . . . ) As I was trying to explain this premise of future investment market instability to someone, I realized some of the back data points that support the final premise are sorely missing from my original post, and I'd thought I'd go back and add those bits of evidence.
In the first post, I referred only to music and late-in-life investments as indicative of the size of the group. In the music section I included Jim Morrison's picture, and not just because of my affinity toward The Doors. I based that decorative decision on Morrison's intent with his song "Five to One" from Waiting for the Sun:
Morrison supposedly based his lyrics on a statistic he had read which noted that over half the population of the United States in the mid-'60s was under 30, that in fact those older than 30 number only one person in five (to his very drunken recollection). He threw in a bit of typical revolutionary zeal to the tune with his signature Morrison poetic darkness. The same statistic was cited with far less artistry but far more camp that same year in the freakin' hilarious hippy send-up Wild in the Streets and the song (IIRC) "68%."
(I really, really recommend folks catch this movie. It represents the far-flung fears of those on the receiving end of youthful revolutionary zeal, including lowering the voting age and penning the oldsters in concentration camps and keeping them docile with doses of LSD. Compare and contrast it to movies from the point of view of the youngsters, like The Magic Christian or Easy Rider. Discuss.)
To further support my earlier assertion that the tastes of the nation's popular music is stuck in a post-1969 groove, so to speak, check out this web site listing the biggest selling albums of all time. Please note that despite the over play of early sixties tuneage -- or perhaps because of it -- absolutely no albums on the list predate 1969 except those by the Beatles. The 12-13 year old girls born in 1957 seem to hold sway over album sales to this very day. Oh, and who knew the Eagles would top the list?!?
Next, in the first Tsunami installment I made brief mention of Boomers joining the workforce. The effect of such a joining was noted during the 1980s, when several prominent pension fund raids were conducted by their caretakers. In an evenly growing, standard population, such a raid would be unthinkable, since the workers currently making contributions to the pension fund directly support those members drawing their defined benefits. There would only be a tiny amount in the fund at any given time to cover unforeseen crisis. With the Boomers comprising a vast portion of the workforce, however, there were far more employees than retirees, far more contributors to the system. Technically, this money should have been tied up in a Gore-styled lockbox to await the boomer retirees; in reality, billions in overfunding proved too great a temptation to administrators, leading to unauthorized draws to fund Mob casinos and outright buyouts and liquidations under the relaxed Reagan-era laws.
Furthermore, to interject a bit of more recent discussion, talking heads everywhere are predicting gloom and doom once the Social Security ratio dips below full funding. What these yappers should be discussing is that the fund is currently overfunded, and has been now for decades. The overage has simply been applied to the US general fund to allow the government to collect fewer taxes and expend more cash. When that dip in (I believe) 2013 happens, the government should just cover the overage from the general fund, rather than threaten to cut off funds to folks that can least afford the cut. Why aren't top leaders honest about how the SS funds have been accounted thus far? One look at the leadership should offer a strong clue.
Speaking of bastards and motherfuckers, talk of privatizing Social Security retirement funds completely by these cock knockers should give everyone pause. The only people who will benefit from such a massive shift of funds from publicly managed to private will be those that manage private funds. I'm not talking about a fund here or a fund there; I refer instead to the entire system. After all, when the Boomers start drawing their needed retirement funds already invested in the various markets, the drain will start the crash. Only those that facilitate the movement of capital will profit once that slide starts the inevitable downward process. Whether money is moving into or out of a commodity, they get paid. When it comes to selling those stocks, you may not get paid, but they will.
Which leads me to close, once again, on a down note.
A copy of this article is posted at work. It was supposed to be a cheery, human-interest story. It starts:
Folks, don't plan to retire. It might just be better to work until the bars close every work night.
When you're eighty years old.
In the first post, I referred only to music and late-in-life investments as indicative of the size of the group. In the music section I included Jim Morrison's picture, and not just because of my affinity toward The Doors. I based that decorative decision on Morrison's intent with his song "Five to One" from Waiting for the Sun:
. . . . Five to one, baby, one in five.
No one here gets out alive . . . .
The old get old, and the young get stronger.
May take a week, and it may take longer.
They got the guns, but we got the numbers.
Gonna win yeah, we're taking over. . . .
Your ballroom days are over, baby.
Night is drawing near.
Shadows of the evening
Crawl across the years.
Morrison supposedly based his lyrics on a statistic he had read which noted that over half the population of the United States in the mid-'60s was under 30, that in fact those older than 30 number only one person in five (to his very drunken recollection). He threw in a bit of typical revolutionary zeal to the tune with his signature Morrison poetic darkness. The same statistic was cited with far less artistry but far more camp that same year in the freakin' hilarious hippy send-up Wild in the Streets and the song (IIRC) "68%."
(I really, really recommend folks catch this movie. It represents the far-flung fears of those on the receiving end of youthful revolutionary zeal, including lowering the voting age and penning the oldsters in concentration camps and keeping them docile with doses of LSD. Compare and contrast it to movies from the point of view of the youngsters, like The Magic Christian or Easy Rider. Discuss.)
To further support my earlier assertion that the tastes of the nation's popular music is stuck in a post-1969 groove, so to speak, check out this web site listing the biggest selling albums of all time. Please note that despite the over play of early sixties tuneage -- or perhaps because of it -- absolutely no albums on the list predate 1969 except those by the Beatles. The 12-13 year old girls born in 1957 seem to hold sway over album sales to this very day. Oh, and who knew the Eagles would top the list?!?
Next, in the first Tsunami installment I made brief mention of Boomers joining the workforce. The effect of such a joining was noted during the 1980s, when several prominent pension fund raids were conducted by their caretakers. In an evenly growing, standard population, such a raid would be unthinkable, since the workers currently making contributions to the pension fund directly support those members drawing their defined benefits. There would only be a tiny amount in the fund at any given time to cover unforeseen crisis. With the Boomers comprising a vast portion of the workforce, however, there were far more employees than retirees, far more contributors to the system. Technically, this money should have been tied up in a Gore-styled lockbox to await the boomer retirees; in reality, billions in overfunding proved too great a temptation to administrators, leading to unauthorized draws to fund Mob casinos and outright buyouts and liquidations under the relaxed Reagan-era laws.
Furthermore, to interject a bit of more recent discussion, talking heads everywhere are predicting gloom and doom once the Social Security ratio dips below full funding. What these yappers should be discussing is that the fund is currently overfunded, and has been now for decades. The overage has simply been applied to the US general fund to allow the government to collect fewer taxes and expend more cash. When that dip in (I believe) 2013 happens, the government should just cover the overage from the general fund, rather than threaten to cut off funds to folks that can least afford the cut. Why aren't top leaders honest about how the SS funds have been accounted thus far? One look at the leadership should offer a strong clue.
Speaking of bastards and motherfuckers, talk of privatizing Social Security retirement funds completely by these cock knockers should give everyone pause. The only people who will benefit from such a massive shift of funds from publicly managed to private will be those that manage private funds. I'm not talking about a fund here or a fund there; I refer instead to the entire system. After all, when the Boomers start drawing their needed retirement funds already invested in the various markets, the drain will start the crash. Only those that facilitate the movement of capital will profit once that slide starts the inevitable downward process. Whether money is moving into or out of a commodity, they get paid. When it comes to selling those stocks, you may not get paid, but they will.
Which leads me to close, once again, on a down note.
A copy of this article is posted at work. It was supposed to be a cheery, human-interest story. It starts:
As usual, Everett Minard, 80, the oldest driver with King County Metro Trans it, was unfailingly polite.
It was the start of his shift, which begins at 4:15 in the afternoon and ends at 2:15 in the morning.
Folks, don't plan to retire. It might just be better to work until the bars close every work night.
When you're eighty years old.