The Peristaltic Testator

Jim Kunstler whipped out another gem in which he wrote:

For decades we measured the health of our economy (and therefore of our society) by the number of "housing starts" recorded month-to-month. For decades, this translated into the number of suburban tract houses being built in the asteroid belts of our towns and cities. When housing starts were up, the simple-minded declared that things were good; when down, bad. What this view failed to consider was that all these suburban houses added up to a living arrangement with no future. That's what we were so busy actually doing. Which is why I refer to this monumentally unwise investment as the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world.

(Emphasis from the author.)

Why is he so glum about our economic expansion? ( For lots of really good reasons. )


Addendum, August 10, 2009: Calculated Risk shares a paper describing a move from expanded building from city cores to a "new era of infill and redevelopment." Which will have to happen if "this monumentally unwise investment" called suburbia is ever to be corrected.

PBS's Frontline recently tackled global warming and the corporate forces against change in its most recent episode, Heat. (You can watch the full two hour episode at the site.) Among the interviews, they examined GM's new concept plug-in hybrid, the Chevy Volt. If you happen to follow the link to the Volt's official site, you'll notice a dearth of actual information on the damned thing, let alone any tech-specs that make such sites in any way interesting. There's a reason. The Frontline crew was invited to shoot some road footage of the Volt as a part of "Heat." The prototype slowed to under 10mph on a gentle grade, finally stalling at the top of the hill. It had to be pushed into the truck that brought it to the shoot.

Martin Smith also interviewed a GM PR hack, asking the one question that everyone in the entire world needs to be constantly asking anyone associated with the Evil Behemoth: Why build the Volt when you had a perfectly good electric in the EV1, a car you recalled and crushed. . . ten years ago? The hack tried to correct the record, noting the cars were near the end of their life cycles had been "recycled," and that several had been donated to museums and universities.

The first part about the cars being "too old to drive" was bogus through and through. Most of the lessees protested the end-of-lease recalls. Many of them offered to buy the cars outright for far more than the market would warrent. Really, see Who Killed the Electric Car. The PR hack's last bit about the museum and university donation program proves only partially true; the donated vehicles came disabled and enjoined with strict warnings for the receivers to never, never, never try to restore the cars to working condition and (gasp!) actually drive the cars. Most of the cars were delivered with key components of the drive system removed. In fact, only the Smithsonian's National Museum of American History (NMAH) got a complete car:

Only 40 EV1s were preserved, according to Jill Banaszynski, manager of the EV1 donation program, to be given to museums and institutions or kept for research by GM. Of these, the only fully intact EV1, complete with its (now inert) lead acid battery, is today part of the NMAH collection. “Our requirement is that all the vehicles in the museum have to be complete models,” says Withuhn. “We may remove parts, but we have to know that if we wanted to drive a car, or a steam engine, we could -— not that we would. It’s a question of authenticity.”

This stipulation initially posed a problem for GM, which had decided to take the cars off the road because only a relative handful of technicians knew how to work safely on the powerful batteries. But a series of negotiations proved fruitful, and the museum, in March of 2005, received its own complete example of an exemplary machine. (Emphasis mine.)

That line suggesting that "only a relative handful of technicians" proves reason enough to disable the cars? Bull. Complete and utter bull. Sure, the EV1s do have a pretty high voltage pack, over 400 volts, IIRC, but there are lots of folks out there who work on similar voltages daily. . . and many of them can be found at universities. Duh. No, the EV1 was disabled to prevent anyone from seeing those cars on the road ever again.

You see, it turns out that folks sitting high in GM's corporate office towers, the people who make the core decisions regarding what products it will produce and why, have funny feelings compared to the majority of, say, the majority of scientists in this world. Stephen Colbert reinforced that lesson when he had GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz on his show. Take a peek:

Here Lutz is promoting the car that has at least a chance of pulling GM out of the toxic sea of red ink in which it currently gasps and bobs, and Lutz openly shares the fact that he doesn't believe carbon dioxide build-up causes global warming. "32,000 scientist" believe GW is caused by sunspots? Really, Bob? Really?!? Way to sell the whole Volt concept. I'm sure your target market would agree.

The Bottom Line? General Motors is run by a bunch of old fogies that are not only running their company into the ground, taking all of their employees with them, they furthermore haven't the slightest idea what they are doing wrong, and are therefore highly unlikely to change their corporate course in any positive way anytime soon.

I'm sorry, but when any group runs pell mell through a crowd with a revving chain saw, it's time to act. The sooner GM closes its doors and cedes its market share to companies that don't suck so very, very much, the better everyone both in front of and behind the tailpipes will be.

It's just sad.


*The "Die, Die, Die," of course, refers to a corporate death, not literal death. I may not share, er, any opinions with GM corporate, but that certainly doesn't mean I wish them ill.

Allow me to share a passage from the last Wired magazine I will be buying in a long, long time:

Smart Fortwo Though this king of microcars has been scooting around the EU practically since before it was the EU, the Fortwo is finally making its way stateside. It's about time! Americans like to save gas too; now we don't have to shell out Prius bucks or duck into the gray market. The Smart's 36 mph is worthy of a hybrid but will set you back far less (it starts at $11,590). Better late than never. (Emphasis mine.)

Let's examine this passage, shall we? That bit about the "gray market" I fully understand. I posted about ZAP's involvement earlier. Whatever ZAP touches, I don't. 'Nuff said. From the same sentence, though: "Prius bucks?" Let's see: they're trying to equate a $20K four-door, four passenger sedan with a gasser just a bit bigger than a golf cart that costs almost ten grand less? Four seats vs. two, more than double the carrying capacity, and the larger gets better mileage. Uh, utility-wise, I would say the Prius represents a far greater value.

Oh, and let's finally note the elephant in the phrase, shall we? Not only does the Prius give more space for the money, it gets better mileage. Like 15 or more mpg better. Hell, my '86 Honda Civic has four seats and almost gets better mileage. What gives?

Well, no one is saying what gives, and that really pisses me off. I have some speculation to offer, though, ( conjecture that focuses on the importance of companies to brand themselves. )

I was writing a very nasty note to Wired expressing my opinion. After I started it, though, I realized they haven't published any of my other nasties, and definitely won't commit this one to print. Why? The only letters from readers they print concern matters outside of their business model. No printed letter calls bullshit on their blatant product pushing and refusal to confront advertisers on their questionable claims.

Coincidentally and conveniently, the offending blurb spewed from the last issue my subscription had to offer. I'll just let the 10+ year subscription lapse with this lasting insult to the readers' intelligence. Good riddance to them.

First, a disclaimer. I'm proud to drive in Seattle's transit system. Compared to other systems, it rules. There are times, though, when it completely falls apart, like today's fun with snow. Mind you, this wasn't a huge blizzard dumping multiple feet in a matter of hours like those in the midwest and northeast experience. Not even close. We got maybe a couple of inches, and only in the outlying areas. Why things deteriorated so quickly, so completely (in my not-so-humble opinion) can be traced to two prevalent problems: Hills and Coordination.


Imagine driving a bus up or down this. . . .

( Yep. We gots hills, lotsa hills. )

We can't do anything about the hills, not like we used to! Which leads me to the other thing that goes seriously wrong in inclement weather or majorly bad traffic days: Disaster response. ( What do we drivers do when things get FUBAR? We call for help. )

One day I'll present my thoughts on what can be done to make a more robust system. I do have such thoughts, but realize the changes necessary to develop such a system will likely never be enacted. All transit agencies are facing a double-whammy: Fuel prices at record highs with no chance of falling, an aging workforce and record ridership. These situations command the attentions of policy wonks and technocrats in ways far more compelling than minor interruptions of service caused by snow.

Yes, I said minor interruptions. Though these snow days do suck so, let's all remember that they happen but seven or eight days per year. Snow is not a pestilence descending to permanently punish a wayward and sinful populace. The snow falls, rather, like a gift, freeing people from the shackles a scheduled life presents. Yes, you were late for work. Were you fired? Probably not, since no one can get to work on-time in Seattle when it snows. So pour yourself a hot toddy or mulled wine and call in. Tell the boss you're snowed in. The likelihood of everyone else at the office doing the same? Pretty good, really.

If you can't just bag a day at work for proper work like building snow angels and castles, the best you can do is dress warmly, carry an emergency lunch and a heaping attitude of "Damn, this stuff is pretty."

According to The Oil Drum, this amount so far represents the largest averaged amount of crude oil extracted from the drilling fields in one month. Write that number down somewhere. Keep that number safe for future reference.

Why?



Because that record was set in May, 2005:

1) Crude oil - Latest available figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates increased by 455,000 b/d from June to July. Total production in July was estimated at 73.28 million b/d, which is 1.01 million b/d lower than the all time high crude oil production of 74.30 million b/d reached in May 2005.

Not long ago, I introduced readers here to M. King Hubbert's concept of Peak Oil. It now looks like Hubbert colleague Kenneth Deffeyes' prediction of a late November, 2005 peak was only half a year off the mark.

The Wife gave me a heads up yesterday -- I received a compliment!

People are silly. Almost as silly as the 556 driver who likes making goofy announcements on the way to the U-District. Take this morning, for example: at one point, he announced with a very grand sense of mock seriousness, "welcome to Bellevue, the center of the world!"

I’ll miss his enthusiasm. (Emphasis from The Driver, me)

Yup, that was me. I remember that one well, because at least three people laughed.

Thanks, Departing Rider, for the kind words. Should you ever read this post, though, might I make a suggestion? If I or any other driver gives you a smooth ride, avoids an accident, reminds you to grab your wallet, makes a joke, stops you from sliding a twenty into the bill gobbler, or does anything that gives your day a positive kick, could you let the driver know?

I realize that I must rant a bit.

Here's the story. It pays well, sure, but driving can really suck. Any time we do something wrong, you see, someone whips out a pen, jots down the time and bus number, and complains. It's amazing how often this happens. Sometimes, as gomezticator noted, the complaints go seriously public.

Ah, but what happens when a driver does something right? Often, nothing.

I realize this is a common human trait. Nordstrom did a customer study once. They asked folks what they did when they received good/bad service. When someone received service that exceeded the person's expectations, on average he/she told three others about it. When the service failed to meet expectations, however, the person told on average 11 others*. Quite simply, bad news travels much faster than good.

I have seen this happen throughout my working life. While driving, though, I have seen its effects far more than at other employers, simply because Large Public Transit Agencies take customer feedback very, very seriously.

Let's say you like the way a driver combed his hair. You could go online, call a voicemail system, drop a snail mail letter, even go to headquarters downtown, give the bus number, route, time, and say "I really like the way the driver combs his hair." That driver would be tracked down by base and given a note through the system mail with the time the message was received and that quote on it. The driver would then be required -- required! -- to see his chief who would sit there and say, "Great job! Keep up the good combing!" After the meeting, the note would be added to the driver's permanent file. Yes, it sounds bizarre, but that's the way it works.

By the same token, let's say the message you composed said, "I really hate the way the driver combs his hair." The message would follow the same tortured path, only this time the chief would be obliged to advise the driver to comb his hair. Ah, but given the 3 to 11 ratio cited above, even the comb-happy driver faces almost four times more grooming slams than kudos.

Even though drivers are for the most part aware of this discrepancy, we become jaded in an awful hurry. After all, why go out of your way at work if you will literally never hear about it? By the same token, you might as well not give an aerial intercourse at a rolling dough wheel because someone, sometime, somewhere is bound to complain about something, even if you didn't deserve the complaint. If you're going to do the time, ya might as well do the crime.

Example. Every now and again, I preface my ADA stop announcements with one-liners or Shakespeare, depending upon my mood. No one has ever mentioned this to the Customer Feedback System. Sometimes, they don't even bother laughing. I even catch some trying hard not to laugh, as if showing any face other than bored stupification somehow blotted one's bus-riding cred.

Example. I have worked behind the wheel now for six years, and have received as many commendations. I am told this is well above average. Much of the wise-cracking and general friendliness took place over my 2.5 year stint on a Particular Route. None of those attaboys, however, came from any rider on that Particular Route. By contrast, all my three complaints came from riders and others on the road I may or may not have pissed off while driving that piece-of-literal-shit Particular Route. Lesson learned: folks on that Particular Route are complete asshats, and shall be forever more served by drivers far less senior or far more asshattish than I. We don't get paid any extra to put up with the bullshit some routes offer, so why drive them?

---

So, folks, when you just reach the boiling point over some transit operator's behavior, please complain. I not only admit there are bad drivers in the ranks, I could probably give you their names. Management has few eyes on the road and would love factual feedback.

However, do yourself a favor. Go out of your way to find other drivers who make your life better with a smooth ride, a little friendliness, a joke. Call the number or send an email to the agency that hires the good driver. Glow with praise, however brief or lengthy.

Do this four times for every complaint you make.

Were more riders to do this, everyone's trip would become more pleasant. Drivers would feel folks appreciated the little gestures, perhaps for the first time. That encourages more little gestures in the future. Done enough, the average bus trip might just improve for everyone involved.



I feel much better.


*Addendum 10/31/2007: These numbers, while applicable in the Nordstrom survey, do not apply at my Agency. The actual ratio of complaints to commendations stands at 100 to 1.

I wish I were kidding.

I thought I'd share some of my other investigative interests with the general LJ crowd. Y'know, just for chuckles. By now, most of y'all out there know of my interest in electric vehicles and alternative energy sources. There are lots of reasons for this interest; but recently, a very good reason -- and the evidence supporting it -- is making its way through the headlines.



( Meet Dr. M. King Hubbert. )


Addendum October 19, 2007: 74.3 Million barrels per day might just be the peak. We will know for certain only after years have passed, but it looks like this global extraction record was set in May of 2005.

A couple weeks ago, I heard a quick blurb on the radio mention that, out of the nation (I think), Washington State has reduced its consumption of gas and diesel the most, 10% over the last few years. I meant to find the original source for that story, but forgot. Now I can't.

I should be more attentive. That story might confirm a hypothesis I made in Speaking of Broken Clocks. . . . concerning auto buyers and the choices they make when confronted with poorly considered tax structures.

Anyone out there happen to catch that story and know of a source? TIA.

I've been playing with Google Earth for a while now (the free version, of course). It's fun to note what car was parked in front of your house when the satellite passed over your neighborhood. In my case, no car out front; but the wife's burgandy Camry is in the drive where it ought to be. Don't believe me? Check out the new Usepic!

Since home owner documents rarely come with latitude and longitude coordinates, I had to hunt for our house by using known and easily found landmarks and zooming ever closer. I then did this for my friend's house nearby, for my Mom's old house, Dad's house, the in-laws place (with help from the wife who is quite a bit more familiar with Lowell, Mass). . . hours of fun. Next came Devil's Tower, Wyoming and a few other famous places.

What then?

I started looking up old work sites. This was quite a bit more of a challenge, since I was until the last few years a working merchant mariner. My workplaces have a fixed location, sure; but only when they are at the dock. Folks, boats move. That's part of the fun. I found some of the easier targets, sometimes twice! The free Google maps have overlays of different pics, taken obviously in different times of days, even seasons.

Then I started hunting for the more obscure, smaller targets. ( Oh, I found them. I found them. )

This just in from Bill Dube, builder of some pretty cool electric vehicles. He now has a new 1/4 mile drag speed record on his KillaCycle.

Here's the video.



By the way, the KillaCycle is all-electric, and the only non-Harley to ever participate in the All Harley Drag Races . . . which explains the very non-electric motor noises in the background.

Since the camera person didn't get the focus on the scoreboard, here's the end of his post:

Just as Scotty crossed the finish
line, the rear motor splashed plasma onto the track, creating an
awesome fireworks display. (You MUST see the video.)

The scoreboard lit up showing: 8.760 @ 145.44 mph