Behold/Beware the Swarm

[peristaltor]

Not long ago, I speculated that the economy behaved in an emergent fashion, without a guiding intelligence. The Angry Bear, quoting Carl Zimmer (who blogs at The Loom), supported my speculation:

Profit is simply the difference between expense and income. Each individual measures the effort required to receive a desired amount of income. Some are happy with little; others climb the corporate ladder. Different parts of the swarm "swirl" or move differently, but all parts are driven by a simple and similar principle: Self-interest. . . .

In short, there is a kind of exorable path that will be taken, regardless on any one individual’s intelligence. Why has the U.S. failed to have a sane energy policy? The answer is simple: There was never an immediate need. Each individual in a swarm responds only to its immediate environment. To move en mass to alternate sources of energy—however wise in the long run—violates the principle of immediate response, violates the principle of immediate self-interest, a violation that would force the individual or unit to act with foresight, something he instinctively will not do. Trying to change the principles of a particular swarm is like trying to push water uphill.

Exactly.

For you nihilist economists out there, though, remember:

Governments exist to provide wisdom and guidance, to set rules for behavior, to modify swarm behavior. What happens when the principles of the swarm invade and control the government, when the government cannot in any way guide the swarm? Is that not precisely what is happening, both here in the "democratic West" and in communist China? Consequently, we have no energy policy...and China has no environmental policy. With no controls in place, our credit crunch is becoming disastrous. (Emphasis mine.)

There are ways to control the swarm, to direct both public policy and spending decisions in one action. Conversely, poor taxation policies can derail the best intentions leading to counter-productive consequences. Once I came to this realization -- even before I had the terms and definitions to define what I felt -- understanding situations surrounding me came easily.

It's all about the individuals. Understand those simple impulses that motivate the individuals, and you start to understand the swarm.




X-Posted to home_effinomic.